The apocalypse brought about by the war in Ukraine has yet to make its way into the history books, but it is already in a broker’s note. BCA Research, an independent broker, is the first to put a figure on this growing and widespread fear on Wall Street as on other international markets. He assesses at 10% the probability that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia degenerates into a third world and nuclear war. “If Vladimir Putin thinks his time has come, he might think the rest of humanity should do the same,” the broker sums up brutally in a note sent Friday to his clients and titled “The increase in risks of a nuclear apocalypse”.
Even if World War III is averted, markets could “feel panicky fear of this event in the coming weeks.” BCA Research believes that we should not yet give in to panic and “remain constructive” in terms of investment despite this “existential risk”. He invites his clients to stay invested in equities. Faced with requests for clarification from investors, other brokers and analysts could also embark on the perilous art of assessing the major new risks (geopolitics, nuclear) created by the war in Ukraine.