The threat of a rate hike materializes in the United States

Posted on Feb 8, 2019 2021 at 19:13Updated Feb 8, 2019 2021 at 19:48

It floats in the bond market like a back to normal scent. In question, the renewed optimism on the future of the American economy, now that the vaccination campaign is launched and that a significant recovery plan is emerging. “ If the plan is passed, I expect that we will find full employment by next year. », Declared, confident Janet Yellen on CNN Sunday evening. For the new US Secretary of the Treasury, “ there is absolutely no reason that [le pays] be forced to undergo a long and slow recovery “. What to boost the morale of the markets … and the level of interest rates, which, paradoxically, could penalize investors.

On Monday, the 30-year Treasuries – US government bonds – rate hit the symbolic 2% threshold on Monday, for the first time since February 2020, before the Covid crisis hit the entire country. Mondial economy. Almost double its historic low – 1.16% – recorded last May. And this new bullish momentum affects all US long rates. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is now firmly established above 1% and is approaching its levels of last March. On Wall Street, we see it reaching – or even exceeding -1.3% at the end of the year. As a result, the yield curve begins to steepen again, that is to say that the gap between long rates and short rates is widening again, a sign that the risk is starting to be taken into account by the markets.

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