The euro underestimates the risk of a victory for Marine Le Pen

Posted Apr 21, 2022, 12:00 PMUpdated on Apr 21, 2022 at 1:38 PM

Unable to anticipate the last two political earthquakes (Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in 2016), the markets are also underestimating the chances of a victory for Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election. The “electoral risk” on the euro-dollar has certainly doubled since the beginning of the month, but it remains much lower than the fears fueled in the past by the markets of a surprise victory for the candidate of the National Rally.

In the world of betting, the election is already decided. The “predict” online betting platform gives Emmanuel Macron a 9 out of 10 chance of winning with a difference of at least 6% compared to Marine Le Pen. At its lowest, the probability of his re-election had never fallen below 70%. After the first round, most bookmakers, especially Anglo-Saxons, predict the victory of the incumbent president with a probability of 90% to 93%. Marine le Pen is given at best victorious with a possibility of 15%.

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