The eco brief. Extension of the health curfew, curfew on growth?

The rue du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny empty at nightfall, during confinement due to the coronavrius crisis in Amiens, which established a curfew. (MARC BERTRAND / FRANCE-BLEU PICARDIE)

Is the economy threatened with relapse by the resurgence of Covid-19? The impact of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy is starting to be felt. Hopes of recovery are showered all over the world.

Economic reports or impact studies are similar and converge on one point: the economic recovery that everyone saw dawning this summer is indeed compromised. As for Europe, data communicated by the Boston Consulting Group shows that overall, the industry of the Old Continent has regained some points but is stabilizing below pre-crisis levels. There was a little rebound this summer … and then nothing.

The automotive sector, a sector badly affected during the confinement, recovered somewhat between June and August, but sales prospects are plunging again. Ditto in the transport, logistics and therefore hotel and catering sectors. In Germany, the European economic engine, for the first time since the start of the epidemic, the number of new daily infections exceeds the 10,000 mark in 24 hours. In March, at the height of the crisis, the number of infections had not exceeded 6,300 per day. Indicator among others and not so anecdotal: the country with 83 million inhabitants saw its sales of toilet paper jump by 90% last week. Obviously, the Germans fear re-containment.

According to the latest projections from the Rexecode business institute, if the curfew had been limited to its first version in Ile-de-France and eight metropolitan areas, over a quarter, the loss of wealth produced (GDP) would have been of 2 billion euros. The extension of the curfew to 54 departments in total plus Polynesia announced Thursday evening risks, according to Rexecode, reducing our growth from 0.7 to 0.8%, a net loss of 15 to 17 billion euros in the fourth quarter in due to lower consumer spending.

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