Raw materials: supercycle or hoax?

The debate is raging among raw materials specialists! Does the spectacular rise in prices after the pandemic correspond to the entry into a new supercycle, that is to say a rise in the prices of energy, metals and agricultural products destined to last at least ten years? ‘years? Or is it just a trivial catch-up in a chaotic environment, both in terms of production and logistics chains? This fundamental question for the market monopolized the debates at the Commodities Global Summit (organized by the “Financial Times”), the unmissable annual meeting for specialists in the sector.

The idea of ​​a new supercycle comparable to that of the 2000s – then driven by urbanization and the emergence of China – was for the first time explicitly mentioned in a note from Goldman Sachs at the end of 2020. A few months later, the bank’s star economist and commodities specialist Jeff Currie persists and signs. For him, the market is at the dawn of a new supercycle: “ It is not vaccines, nor the energy transition that will lead to an increase in demand, it is the covid itself », Explains the expert. The pandemic having exposed the inequalities in the world and the vulnerability of low-income households, “ governments will wage war on low incomes “.

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