New research shows that the new nCoV variant in the UK has an infection rate of 56% from a previous estimate of 70%, and requires new control measures.
The study was published by the Center for Mathematical Models for Infectious Diseases of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine on December 22, and has not been evaluated by any scientific journal. Comparative studies between a series of models are case prediction data, hospital admissions and other variables. Other researchers are studying the variation in the lab to determine if it differs biologically.
The study found no evidence that the variant was more lethal than other strains, however it was contagious at 56%. Meanwhile, the British government initially estimated the infection level to be 70%.
Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health who was not involved in the study, says that the study offers a convincing explanation of the variant’s past and future.
The new nCoV variant quickly spread rapidly in London and eastern England this month. Viruses have 23 changes, some of which make it more infectious.
The study authors uncovered evidence of the fast spread of the new variant. They also built different mathematical models and experimented with each one to account for the spread of variation. The research team analyzed which model best predicted the number of confirmed new cases, as well as hospital admissions and deaths.
The new measure mentioned is to close schools at all levels and universities until February. However, the move only gives Britain a little more time, in exchange for the subsequent lifting of additional restrictions. outbreak of cases.
The researchers warn that their model, based on a set of assumptions, may be wrong. For example, the death rate from Covid-19 may continue to decline as doctors improve the care of patients admitted to hospital.
However, the research team said that “it is urgent to consider a new approach to reducing the current infection”.
As of December 24, the UK has recorded more than 2,149,500 cases, 69,051 deaths. Due to data entry errors, nearly 16,000 positive cases between September 25 and October 2 were not recorded in daily cases.
Chile (According to the NYTimes)