The Ministry of Finance made its calculations based on the various reconfinement assumptions. “Our economy is already slowing down with the curfew at 6 p.m., and with the closure of all bars, restaurants and cultural activities, activity has fallen by 7% according to Bercy estimates.“, notes the journalist David Boéri, on the set of 19/20 of France 3, Wednesday January 27. According to the scenario of a” light “reconfinement, with the closure of colleges, high schools, and company restaurants, the activity could fall by 10%, according to these same assumptions.
If the government made the choice of “strict” confinement, with the closure of non-essential stores as well as nurseries and schools, activity would decline by 18%, estimates Bercy. Activity had fallen by 33% during the spring of 2020 and the first confinement. Re-containment would also mean increased state spending to support the economy. At the time of the curfew, the state spends six billion euros per month on businesses, “four billion for exemption from charges and the solidarity fund and two billion for partial unemployment“, specifies David Boéri. The bill would rise to 15 billion euros per month in the event of reconfinement.
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