Commodities at the mercy of the Ukrainian crisis

Posted Jan 27, 2022, 6:00 AMUpdated on Jan 27, 2022 at 7:12 am

“At the beginning of all conflicts, we always find raw materials”, recalls Philippe Chalmin, professor at Paris-Dauphine and president of CyclOpe, a think tank on raw materials which presents its forecasts for 2022 this Thursday. Last, bickering between Beijing and Melbourne contributed to the coal boom. The coup in Guinea has shaken bauxite, an essential ingredient for the manufacture of aluminum. Russia, “expert in the great diplomatic game”, did not hesitate to use the gas weapon vis-à-vis Europe to accelerate the commissioning of the NordStream 2 gas pipeline, driving up gas prices natural by 397% in 2021.

Judging by the tensions on the Ukrainian border, which was true in 2021, will be true again this year. With a nuance of size. The markets were until then most often hanging on the trade dispute between the United States and China, whether for metals or for agricultural products. As it did not experience any major aggravations, today it is Ukraine that will bring rain and shine to commodities. The outcome of the conflict will not only be decisive for all energy products, it will also have an impact on metals and even on agricultural markets.

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