Before Apple, most of its competitors, including Samsung, brought 5G mobile phones to market.
Appl’s iPhone 5G conference left investors uninterested. The company’s share price fell 2.65% during the press conference.
The media said this time the iPhone 5G “lack of surprise”, but the fact that the outside expectations have set an excessive high threshold for Apple’s stock price performance after the press conference.
Analysts lecture on “super cycles”
Many Wall Street analysts are hoping for the new iPhone 12 series, calling it the “super cycle” and “the opportunity for users to upgrade their phones once in a decade”.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives predicts that 350 million of the world’s current 950 million iPhones face need for an upgrade. The new phones will drive iPhone sales this fiscal year, and their sales will exceed fiscal 2015’s record (a record 231 million iPhones). The record set by Apple’s first large-screen mobile phone was the iPhone 6 Plus.
Now, analysts’ consensus expectation is that, after two consecutive years of decline, total iPhone sales for the current fiscal year through September next year are expected to grow 10%.
The highlight of iPhone 12 series is of course 5G. According to IDC data, in the first half of 2020, 5G mobile phone shipments only accounted for 13% of total smartphone shipments. With the addition of the iPhone 12 series to the track, IDC predicts that 5G mobile phone shipments by 2020 will reach 237 million units and increase to 481 million by 2021. At that time, Apple’s 5G iPhone is expected. 150 million, accounting for 21% of the total 5G mobile phone market.
In a nutshell, investors expect that the iPhone 12 will deliver the same incredible growth as the iPhone in its early stages. This expectation drives up Apple’s stock price. Even after the sharp correction in February and September, before Tuesday’s conference, Apple’s share price recorded a 69% increase for the year.
Apple stock’s futures-to-earnings ratio hit 33.2 times, its highest valuation in more than a decade. And is the iPhone 12 5G worthy?
Is it expected that the iPhone can cool down?
The iPhone 12 series products are still worth the price with the 5nm A14 chip, the all-new OLED screen, and a better camera. Furthermore, as Apple’s first 5G mobile phone, the iPhone 12 mini’s pricing strategy is also seen to reduce the entry barrier for the 5G iPhone. But can the iPhone 12 deliver a super cycle?
First of all, the 5G iPhone may not deliver 5G speeds in the US. Data from Counterpoint Research shows that in the US, even in major cities, coverage of 5G networks is still limited. IDC estimates that 4.2 million 5G smartphones were sold in the US market in the first half of this year, accounting for about 7.5% of total smartphone shipments.
Furthermore, before Apple, most of its competitors, including Samsung, brought 5G mobile phones to market. More than a year has passed, 5G mobile phones still do not appear to have “killer software” applications to prove the value of 5G. This is also the reason why some market participants suspect that iPhone 12 sales could beat the record the iPhone 6 Plus set.
Also, the impact of the epidemic on the economy could be related to Apple’s willingness to upgrade phones. During the pandemic period, smartphones were basically no longer favored by consumers and businesses tended to choose to update PCs and laptops to facilitate work and distance learning.
At the end of August, IDC reported that in the second quarter ending June 30, smartphone shipments were down 17% year-on-year, and it is predicted that the recovery would not be. peaked until 2022.
Apple doesn’t just have the iPhone
Of course, Apple isn’t just dependent on iPhone sales. Cook has been expanding his iPhone lineup to appeal to customers with different budgets. Although iPhone shipments failed to break fiscal 2015’s record, Cook compensated for the drop in sales through higher pricing.
In addition, Cook tries to shift much of Apple’s business to digital services and wearables. At the new product launch conference a month ago, Apple launched the Apple One service subscription group. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analysts believe this will help Apple achieve its goal of reaching 600 million subscribers by the end of 2020.
In terms of wearables, the iPhone 12 coming out this time could help. New iPhones no longer ship wired headphones, which is expected to benefit Apple’s AirPods wireless headset sales.
Where to buy iPhone 12 cheapest in the world?
Depending on the market, the selling price of iPhone 12 models will be different based on exchange rates and tax policies.