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Brexit: a deal is rather favorable to the French economy


British Prime Minister Boris Johnson during a press conference where he announces that an agreement on Brexit has been reached, December 24, 2020 in London (Great Britain). (PAUL GROVER / POOL)

It is not a question of rejoicing blissfully and we are not going to align the figures, even if they are encouraging. Yes, this agreement is good for France. The UK is a huge partner for us. It is quite simply the country with which we achieve our first trade surplus in Europe. We export more than we import: 12 billion euros each year, mainly agri-food products. 150,000 French companies, the majority of which are SMEs, maintain trade with our neighbors opposite. That said, the agreement must be validated by the European authorities in January: 2,000 pages in total, with paragraphs and asterisks that we imagine numerous.

There is the sensitive area of ​​fishing. Follow very closely. French fishermen take note of the agreement and await details. But since 80% of the United Kingdom’s trade flows with the continent pass through France, London has every interest in continuing the cordial agreement with Paris. We are its gateway to Europe. Finally, this agreement will save us a loss of earnings which had been estimated at 0.4% of GDP (the national wealth of France) in the event of a “No deal”. This represents a large ten billion euros which will therefore not be lost.

According to economist Christian Saint-Etienne, the vaccination against Covid-19 which will accelerate in the coming months, the arrival of spring with mild temperatures less favorable to the virus, and this trade agreement with the United Kingdom, all these elements combined, should promote the recovery in the second and third quarters of the coming year, in summary: mass vaccination to eradicate the Covid and full application of the trade agreement. The two apparently distant elements could finally allow a recovery in the spring. The appointment is made.

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